$3.3 BILLION for PATH Upgrades? WHAT?

I'll admit that my knowledge of civil engineering is limited, but that number sounds totally insane.  Immediately I think, "Give me $1 billion and I'll do it."  What do I know, though?  I'll take on each of the poster's bullet points (that I assume add up to $3.3 billion as the poster claims).  Let's see if my fury has any basis.  [As a warning, things don't add up in INSANE ways in this post.  I feel I have to clearly outline that the spends reported by the PATH in this article were collected from legitimate news agencies that are sourced at the bottom of this post... look juuuuuuuuuuust beyond the crazy math.]

STATION UPGRADES.  The first four initiatives fall under "station upgrades" that the PATH said they need $659 million for.  One at a time, now.

• Enhanced information displays at all station

This is needed, since the televisions in the station look like they were ripped from 1950's submarines.  Despite their old looks, there is a data delivery system for these TV's as they display up-to-date news.  So, in essence, we are talking about upgrading monitors here--hardware and their cost to install.  I give (generously) 10 monitors per station... which means 130 overall.  At a cost of $3,000 a monitor and $1,000 to install (each, again... generous).

My guess is that these displays need $520,000.... again.... being generous to the number needed and the cost to install.

• Longer platforms for 10-car trains between Newark and World Trade Center to increase capacity.

This is needed.  As it says, the platforms along the Newark-World Trade route aren't long enough to accommodate 10-car trains.  We are talking about a maximum upgrade of up to 5 stations.  Since I have nothing to compare this to, I'm going to put a liberal $10 million out there, per station.  You can build a building for $10 million, so extending a station sounds like it's excessive. 

My guess is that these platform extensions should cost about $50 million.

• New station lighting and upgraded seating

Electricians are expensive, so I'll say we pay them $100/hr and that each station needs 800 hours to upgrade (5 electricians, 8 hours/day for a 20-day work-month).  That's $80,000 per station.  Add the actual hardware (lights, fixtures) and I'd guess that's $50,000 a station.  The lighting, then, would be $1,690,000 for all 13 stations.  Let's be insanely generous and double that for the seating.

My guess is that the lighting and seating would cost $3.4 million.  ($100 per hour, mind you!!)

• Advanced video surveillance systems

I wouldn't know how to even guess this, so I'll turn to New York City's transit system (MTA).  They have planned a 2,000-camera surveillance system that would cost $450 million dollars.  MTA's working on upgrading a 100-year old system, too.  Since the MTA system has, literally, 468 stations, 26 subway lines and carries 1.5 billion passengers a year (compared to the PATH's 13 stations, 2 lines and 69 million passengers), I'm going to be generous and assume the PATH requires 1/6 the cost for their surveillance.  

My guess is that the surveillance system should cost around $75 million.

STATION UPGRADE SUMMARY
Again, the PATH said they need $659 million to upgrade its 13 stations.  My tally comes to $129 million.  I'll remind you that each one of my estimates was generous in their favor (1/6th of MTA's surveillance system?).  So, I'm thinking we're waaaaaaaay off.  Even if I double my generous estimates, I'm still only at $258 million.  That's STILL less than 1/2 what the PATH has asked for.

Let me look at another data point.  NYC's subway system recently improved 4 stations in Rockaway, and these cost: The Forest Ave. stop ($28.3 million), Fresh Pond Road ($25.9 million), Seneca Ave ($23.7 million) and Metropolitan Ave ($15.2 million)."  These average just over $23 million per station.  Take that and multiply it by the 13 stations for the PATH, and it totals $302 million.  That's STILL less than HALF of what the PATH is asking for.

This is bull shart.  Now, on to the trains.

• New fleet of PATH cars with on-board video passenger information system

The PATH has a 340-car fleet that are 4 decades old.  This upgrade will replace them all and add up to 119 new cars by 2011.  I have no issue with replacing the cars, but the MTA claims they need $1.3 million per car.  That sounds like bs...

What to compare this to?  Well, Alstom is the state-of-the-art high-speed trains.  They just announced the fastest high-speed train in the world.  I posted about it here: France: New High-Speed Trains! (USA: Way Behind!).  So, these trains are technological breakthroughs.  The Italian company Nuovo Transporto Viaggiatori purchased the first order of trains: 25 trains for €650 million ($1 billion).  Each train has 11 cars, so they are purchasing 275 cars for $1 billion.  That's $3.6 million each car.  Call me crazy, but $3.6 million for state-of-the-art, top-of-the-line and $1.3 million for a car that'll take people, maximum, 34 miles?  Sounds crazy. 

Maybe I need a more relevant data point.  In July 25, 2007, NYC purchased 620 subway cars for $1.1 billion.   That's $1.8 million a car.  I guess the PATH cars aren't that far off...  Included in these NYC cars, though, are LCD screens that display information.  Do the PATH cars have that?  Yes, they will, but the PATH won't be paying for it.  The screens' content (station information and news) will be controlled by NBC Universal.  In return, NBC is putting up the $15 million to install the monitors on the trains.  No cost to the PATH.

PATH cars summary... is the $1.3 million per car acceptable?  I guess so, but it still sounds terribly high.  The cost for the 459 cars is $596 million.

• New signal system for a smoother, quicker ride

I imagine the PATH's signal system is old as the dickens, so it's only right that it be upgraded.  The goal is to have automated driving (by a computer), which is expected to take (eventually) up to 20% off a rider's commuting time.  We shall see!  The PATH is asking for $400 million for it.  That, also, seems high. 

In 2006, NYC upgraded the L train's signal system.  The upgrade includesd equipment for the trains and switches, software and systems.  It cost $287 million.  It's not an apples-to-apples comparison, though, because the L train only runs 10 miles, BUT the L line's system was older, too.  I'll give the PATH the benefit of the doubt on this one.  $400 million.

• New PATH SmartLink Card = easy to use and reload, trip balances are protected against loss with registration.
  

I can't find how much the PATH said this costs, but I'd imagine they cover there costs pretty quickly.  See, these SmartLink cards costs $5.  That doesn't include any rides... $5 for a card.  Since they are going to be the only method of payment on the PATH soon, I'm imagining they will make their money back really quickly.

Bullets are DONE!  Every one of them.  So, we should add this up now and see how much cheaper I can do this than the PATH:

At this point, my jaw hits the floor.  I mean, FORGET the HAWTaction side.  Where is the rest of the PATH's money?  I researched each of their upgrades with press announcements, but did I miss something?  They are off from their own $3.3 billion by.... $1.6 billion.  What is going on here?  Does anyone know about this discrepancy?  Are there bullets they are keeping off this list... like, to protect us?  What are those other 900 bullets that constitute $1.6 billion?  If you know anything, PLEASE post in the comments so I can sleep at night.  (Even the PATH knows those 9 bullets don't add up to $3.3 billion.  I'm NOT crazy...)

Now, back to the comparison I'd been building up to for the entire post.   Looks like my list, while being totally generous to the PATH with my assumptions, still comes in almost $500 million lower than the PATH in this exercise.  More importantly, though, it comes in $2.2 billion lower than the PATH's announced $3.3 billion in upgrades. 

This all sounds like hogwash BS baloney horse poo to me. 

One more thing.  The PATH just celebrated it's 100 year anniversary as an organization (the PATH itself isn't 100 years old, just the original, parent company).  This upgrade package doesn't seem to be a coincidence, nor does the fact that PATH just raised its fee from $1.50 to $1.75 per ride.  Nothing defends a rate hike like a massive, bloated, insane upgrade plan...


Sources:
Signal cost: http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2007/10/port_authority_announces_upgra.html
PATH car cost: http://www.nj.com/hobokennow/index.ssf/2008/01/new_path_cars_unveiled.html
PATH car cost: http://www.panynj.gov/CommutingTravel/path/html/new_cars.html
more coming soon