Fareed Zakaria Has The World's Pulse

So, Zakaria's book, The Post-American World.  The U.S. is not happy: financial panic, looming recession, eternal war in Iraq, foreclosure bonanzas, high unemployment rates, weak-as-dirt dollar... but Zakaria argues that those things still aren't enough to justify the 80%+ of the citizens who believe the country is on the wrong track.  Instead, Zakaria proposes that Americans are disollusioned because it is not leading the global charge anymore.  Distant lands are determining the global story.  Zakaria labels it the third great power shift in our modern history.  As he says in his article (an excerpt of the book):

"The first was the rise of the Western world, around the 15th century. It produced the world as we know it now—science and technology, commerce and capitalism, the industrial and agricultural revolutions. It also led to the prolonged political dominance of the nations of the Western world. The second shift, which took place in the closing years of the 19th century, was the rise of the United States. Once it industrialized, it soon became the most powerful nation in the world, stronger than any likely combination of other nations. For the last 20 years, America's superpower status in every realm has been largely unchallenged—something that's never happened before in history, at least since the Roman Empire dominated the known world 2,000 years ago. During this Pax Americana, the global economy has accelerated dramatically. And that expansion is the driver behind the third great power shift of the modern age—the rise of the rest."

Zakaria is sure to point out that this isn't the fall of the U.S., this is the rise of everyone else. 

To put the Post-American world into context, Zakaria makes a list that he calls "arbitrary and a bit silly," but it still has some meat in it.  His list: the tallest building in the world is in Taipei (soon to be Dubai).  Europe builds the largest passenger plane.  India's movie industry, Bollywood, has surpassed Hollywood in size.  Abu Dhabi has the largest investment fund in the world.  Singapore has the largest Ferris wheel, an American invention.  Macao blew past Las Vegas's gambling revenues last year.  The original "largest mall in the world," the Mall of America, isn't even in the top ten anymore.  Only two of the richest ten people in the world are American. 

Again, this list doesn't mean anything, but it's interesting because a decade ago (and two decades ago), the U.S. would have dominated that list.  What we are seeing is the rest of the world come into their own.  In 1981, 40% of the world was living on $1/day.  In 2004, that number was 18%, and it's expecting to be 12% by 2015.

"The global economy has more than doubled in size over the last 15 years and is now approaching $54 trillion! Global trade has grown by 133 percent in the same period. The expansion of the global economic pie has been so large, with so many countries participating, that it has become the dominating force of the current era. Wars, terrorism, and civil strife cause disruptions temporarily but eventually they are overwhelmed by the waves of globalization. These circumstances may not last, but it is worth understanding what the world has looked like for the past few decades."

One of the largest reasons China, India, Brazil, etc. are having such an impact is that they are finally practicing sensible economics.  Hyperinflation, that has hit Brazil, Turkey, Italy, Indonesia and more is almost dead.

Of course, the rise of these countries is causing new challenges for the world.  When you take any activity - whether buying an album, cleaning laundry, driving a car or eating chicken - and multiply it by 2.5 billion (the population of China and India alone), there are severe ramifications from that.  It's caused commodity prices to shoot up (like gas, corn, meat, steel).  In fact, almost all commodities are at 200-year highs.

And the U.S. is scared!  That list above is scary (i.e., recession, foreclosures, weak dollar), but there is more that ads to it.  Americans are thinking the world is more dangerous now than ever, but why?  Zakaria points his finger at the media.  With the development of the internet as an instant, thorough distribution method and with 24-hour cable news, every bomb that goes off is BREAKING NEWS.  He argues that everyone in the chain, from reporters and writers to readers and viewers, are still figuring out how to put everything in context. 

Some global events that received almost no coverage?  2 million people die in Indochina in the 1970s.  The million people die in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.  The millions die in the Congo in the 1990s.  Now a helicopter crash grabs headline news.  Of course it's going to make us feel less safe.

It looks kind of grim for the U.S.  Is there anything we still dominate?  Military power.  Yay!  "Russia's military spending is $35 billion, or 1/20th of the Pentagon's.  China has about 20 nuclear missiles that can reach the United States.  We have 830 missiles, most with multiple warheads, that can reach China.  Who should be worried about whom?"

How did it get like this?  Zakaria points out that American culture is like a dynamic sponge, able to absorb ideas, cultures, people and still be resilient.  The U.S. government?  Different story.  They have gotten used to being the epicenter of all political roads.  As a result, they haven't changed at all.  At all.  Zakaria points to how London's the leading financial center in the world now because they were friendly to foreign capital and have improved their regulations.  The U.S.?  Bends for no one but our own (our own richest.)  Another exmample of craziness is the American healthcare system that criples its citizens and employers.  U.S. carmakers now employ more people in Ontario, Canada than Michigan because of healthcare costs.  Also, two decades ago, "the United States had the lowest corporate taxes in the world.  Today they are second-highest.  It's not that ours went up.  Those of others went down."

On top of that, the U.S. is the global rule-maker, but it doesn't play by the rules.  They can just make wars happen and no one will stop them.  They can torture, and answer to no one.  The U.S. bends for no one.  Take the metric system, for example!  The U.S. refuses to adopt this universal system.  "Only three countries in the world don't use the metric system - Liberia, Myanmar, and the United Sates.  For America to continue to lead the world, we will have to first join it."

It's actually ironic.  The U.S. got to be as powerful as it is because other countries weren't modernized.  The U.S. extended its reach to them, selling caputalism as a system that will set them free.  Open your markets!  Free up your politics!  Embrace trade!  Don't be afraid of change!  Now the rest of the world has, and it has proved to be a powerful shift.  As Zakaria says, "Yet just as they are beginning to do so, we are losing faith in such ideas.  We have become suspicious of trade, openness, immigration, and investment because now it's not Americans going abroad but foreigners coming to America.  Just as the world is opening up, we are closing down."

So, where is the U.S.?  What is all of this?  It's living in a world where others can craft policy, terms and impact economies.  Though we're thinking it's an Anti-American world, Zakaria points out that it's not that negative.  We're just adjusting to a Post-American World.  The U.S. needs to accept the globalization we've been preaching.  Let's not forget that we have to globalize ourselves, too, eh?